Escalating tensions between India and Pakistan raise global fears of nuclear conflict
Long-standing tensions between India and Pakistan reached fever pitch following the massacre of 26 civilians in Kashmir, triggering a new diplomatic conflict that upended historic agreements and triggered mutual threats of war. India accuses Pakistan, which denies any involvement. Meanwhile, Islamabad claims to have intelligence pointing to an imminent Indian military incursion.
India and Pakistan are moving closer to a full-scale armed conflict after the deaths of 25 Indians and one Nepalese in the disputed region of Kashmir at the hands of a group of gunmen. New Delhi accuses Islamabad of the attack and decided to violate the Indus Waters Treaty, an act that was considered a declaration of war by the Pakistani government.
The Indus Waters Treaty is a treaty on the redistribution and utilization of the waters of the Indus River between India and Pakistan, concluded through the intervention of the World Bank. The treaty was signed in Karachi on 19 September 1960 by Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Pakistani President Ayub Khan.
India and Pakistan: What happened in Kashmir?
On Tuesday, April 22, 2025, a group of gunmen, allegedly affiliated with the Lashkar-e-Taiba group, opened fire on tourists near Pahalgam, a town in Indian-controlled southern Kashmir. The death toll was 26, authorities confirmed, although the identity of the attackers has not yet been verified.
Lashkar-e-Toiba (literally "Army of the Pure", also transliterated internationally into English as Lashkar-i-Tayyaba, Lashkar-e-Tayyaba) is an Islamist organization originating in Kashmir. It is the military wing of Markaz Dawa-Wal-Irshad, a regional Islamist party, and its leader is Mohammed Latif.
This did not prevent New Delhi from accusing Islamabad of responsibility for the attack, triggering an unprecedented diplomatic escalation in relations between the two countries. Kashmir is the main disputed region between the two Southeast Asian states since the partition of the subcontinent in 1947.
The division of the British Raj's territory was the prelude to a fragmentation between ethnic groups and religions that continues to this day. The colonialist process fueled divisions between the Indian National Congress, with Mahatma Gandhi among its leaders, and the Muslim League, which looked after the interests of Hindus and sought a Muslim nation.
The separation was far from peaceful, with multiple clashes that even turned deadly. It is estimated that by 1950, 3.4 million people were missing or dead, including Gandhi, who was assassinated by a Hindu nationalist in 1948. The conflict was repeated four more times: in 1965, 1971, 1984, and 1999, in addition to skirmishes and isolated attacks such as the one in Kashmir.
The latest events quickly escalated into a diplomatic impasse. India immediately suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, a 1960 water treaty dividing the Indus River and its tributaries, due to cross-border terrorism and Pakistan's reluctance to take responsibility for the incident.
Global concern about a war between nuclear powers
After India closed the dam and cut off the water supply, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif warned that New Delhi's actions would be considered a "declaration of war." Furthermore, this measure means that Indians will not be able to report water releases from their dams, which directly impacts 80% of Pakistan's agricultural sector.
India's Water Minister C.R. Patil announced that his government is working to ensure that "not a single drop of water reaches Pakistan."
As a result, India is suspending bilateral relations and considering ending the 1999 ceasefire. It has also revoked visas for all Pakistanis in its territory and urged its citizens to leave Pakistan within 72 hours.
Both countries decided to militarize key border points such as Punjab, and although gunfire was reported in the Leepa Valley, there were no fatalities. Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif stated that his country is prepared for a full-scale war with India.
Separately, it was learned that the Indian aircraft carrier INS Vikrant has left its port and headed toward Pakistan, while the Pakistani military will conduct live-fire exercises and missile tests near its coastal waters.
The actions of India and Pakistan appear to be provoking a new armed conflict between the two countries, due to the danger posed by their nuclear arsenals. India possesses 164 nuclear warheads, while Pakistan has 170. Therefore, the threat of all-out war appears to be real, and the latest actions of both Southeast Asian states suggest this will become an even more complicated affair.