Who will be the next Pope? The top candidates in an unpredictable process
Following the death of Pope Francis, the Vatican will begin the search for his successor. Among the potential candidates are seven people whose names could be in your hands, as they will determine the direction the Catholic Church will take in the coming years.
Following his death, which occurred this Monday morning, April 21, 2025, in Rome, a series of formal ceremonies began, culminating in two key events: the burial of the Supreme Pontiff, which will take place this Saturday, and the conclave where his successor will be elected.
The first act in this series of events, coordinated by the camerlengo, the person who governs the Vatican when the Pope dies, Cardinal Kevin Farrell, is to declare the seat vacant immediately after confirming the Pope's death. That is, a new successor must be chosen to lead the Catholic Church. And this is where two key factors come into play in the selection of the new Pope: the legacy of the previous pontiff and the direction that Catholicism and its influence want to take in the coming years.
For this to be resolved, there must be a majority consensus within the group of 135 cardinals (although there are 252, only those under 80 can participate in the conclave) who will be responsible for electing the new pontiff.
"We must keep in mind that the Catholic Church Francis is leaving behind is a global entity, no longer centered in Europe," Massimo Faggioli, a theology expert at Villanova University in the United States, told BBC. "And this is evident in the group of cardinals who will be in charge of electing his successor: it is much larger and, above all, more diverse than the one that elected Francis in 2013," he added.
The cardinals are distributed as follows: 14 from North America, 53 from Europe, 23 from Asia, 23 from Latin America, 18 from Africa and 4 from Oceania. From that group of cardinals, most of them appointed by Francis, will emerge the man who will become the 267th Pope in the history of the Catholic Church. And although there are already some names that are rumored to be favorites, the truth, as several experts point out, is that, as with any election, surprises will be the order of the day.
Here are the names of the cardinals who are in the running to be the next Pope
1. Pietro Parolin. 70 years old, originally from Schiavon, Vicenza (Italy)
The soft-spoken 70-year-old Italian Cardinal Parolin served as the Vatican's secretary of state during Francis' administration, making him the pope's top adviser. Parolin also heads the Roman Curia, the central administration of the Church.
In fact, having acted as Francis's substitute at several events, especially when the late Pope became incapacitated due to illness, Parolin is considered a favorite. Some see him as more inclined to prioritize diplomacy and a global perspective of the institution than the purity of Catholic dogma. His critics see this as a problem, while his supporters see his stance as a strength.
As Francis's right-hand man, he has criticized the legalization of same-sex marriage and called the historic 2015 vote in the Republic of Ireland "a defeat for humanity." The bookmakers may be backing him, but Cardinal Parolin will be well aware of an old Italian saying that underlines the uncertainty of the papal election process: "Whoever enters a conclave as Pope, leaves as Cardinal."
Now, it should be noted that of the 266 previous Popes, 213 have been Italian, but there hasn't been a Supreme Pontiff from that country in 40 years, and the shift of the Church's upper echelons out of Europe may mean there won't be another one for now.
It's very difficult to know who the new Pope will be. We're currently heavily influenced by Donald Trump's foreign policy, which will be a key factor. Will they adapt to these policies or continue with Francis's more progressive ideas? Faggioli asks. For the expert, one of the reasons for re-electing a European representative would be to create a world more in line with Trump's ideas.
2. Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle. 67 years old, originally from Manila (Philippines).
Unlike Parolin, he has decades of pastoral experience, meaning he has been an active leader of the Church among the people, rather than a Vatican diplomat or an expert focused solely on church law. The Church has enormous influence in the Philippines, where almost 80% of the population is Catholic.
The country currently has a record five members in the College of Cardinals, which could constitute an important lobby if they all support Tagle.
Tagle is considered a moderate within Catholicism and has been nicknamed the "Asian Francis" for his dedication to social issues and his empathy for migrants, values he shared with the late Pope. He has opposed abortion rights, calling it "a form of murder," a view consistent with the Church's broader position that life begins at conception. He has also spoken out against euthanasia.
But in 2015, when he was archbishop of Manila, Tagle urged the Church to reevaluate its "harsh" stance toward gay people, divorcees, and single mothers, saying that past harshness had caused lasting damage and left many "scarred," and that every individual deserved compassion and respect.
The cardinal had been considered a candidate for Pope Francis since the 2013 conclave, in which he was elected. When asked a decade ago how he viewed suggestions that he could be the next, he replied: "I take it as a joke! It's funny."
For several analysts, the choice of Tagle or a non-European candidate would be in line with the Catholic Church's tendency to look toward the Global South in recent years.
"The numbers indicate the need for a new pope who truly understands the importance and implications of the fact that 75% of Catholics live in Asia, Africa, Latin America, and Oceania; by 2050, it will likely be 80%," Gina A. Zurlo, a religious historian at Harvard University, explained to BBC Mundo.
3. Fridolin Ambongo Besungu, 65, originally from Boto (Democratic Republic of the Congo).
It's quite possible that the next Pope will be from Africa, where the Catholic Church continues to attract millions of faithful. Cardinal Ambongo, originally from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), is one of the leading candidates. He was Archbishop of Kinshasa for seven years and was named a cardinal by Pope Francis.
He is a cultural conservative who opposes the advancement of marriage equality, stating that "same-sex unions are considered contrary to cultural norms and intrinsically evil." Although Christianity is the majority religion in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, its followers have suffered death and persecution at the hands of the jihadist group Islamic State and its allies. In this context, Cardinal Ambongo is considered a staunch defender of the Church.
But in a 2020 interview, he spoke out in favor of some form of religious pluralism: "Let Protestants be Protestants and Muslims be Muslims. We will work with them. But each must maintain their own identity," he declared.
Such comments might lead some cardinals to question whether he fully embraces his sense of mission, in which Catholics hope to spread the word of the Church throughout the world.
What is certain is that Africa, like Latin America in the mid-20th century, is becoming a center of growth for Catholic believers.
"It's where we see the greatest number of vocations emerging, it's where the most baptisms and marriages take place," Father Onesimo Diaz Hernandez, a history expert and doctor of theology from the University of Navarra in Spain, explains to BBC Mundo.
According to official Vatican data, the African continent grew from 272 million Catholics in 2022 to 281 million in 2023. This represents a growth of more than 3.3%, far outpacing other regions of the world such as South America and Asia.
4. Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson. 76 years old, originally from Wassa Nsuta (western Ghana)
Like Cardinal Ambongo, he has stated that he does not want the position. "I'm not sure anyone aspires to be Pope," he told the BBC in 2013.
When asked whether Africa had good reason to choose its next religious leader based on the growth of the Church on the continent, he responded that he believed the Pope should not be chosen based on statistics, because "those kinds of considerations tend to muddy the waters."
He was the first from his country to be appointed cardinal, in 2003 under Pope John Paul II. Like Cardinal Tagle, Turkson was considered a likely candidate a decade later, when Francis was elected. In fact, bookmakers considered him the favorite before the vote.
Turkson, a guitarist who played in a funk band, is known for his energetic presence. Like many African cardinals, he maintains more conservative views. However, he has opposed the criminalization of same-sex relationships in African countries, including his native Ghana.
In 2012, he was accused of making alarmist predictions about the spread of Islam in Europe at a Vatican bishops' conference, for which he later apologized.
5. Peter Erdő. 72 years old, originally from Budapest (Hungary)
In ideological terms, the current Archbishop of Budapest would be a much more conservative choice than the last pontificate. Admired by his European colleagues, who twice elected him President of the European Bishops' Conference, although he no longer holds that position, he has spoken out against the Church's openness on issues such as same-sex marriage and the priesthood of women. He also opposed Pope Francis's 2015 call for churches to open their doors to shelter migrants, noting that this could increase "cases of human trafficking," clearly aligning himself with Hungarian President Viktor Orban, whose anti-immigration policies have been criticized by human rights organizations.
Despite this, he managed to establish a strong relationship with Francis and several Catholic leaders in Africa, which, along with European votes, could give him a strong contender once voting begins.
6. Matteo Maria Zuppi. 69 years old, originally from Rome (Italy)
The current Archbishop of Bologna and President of the Italian Episcopal Conference has become an emerging figure within the Church due to the social focus of his pastoral service.
Appointed a cardinal by Pope Francis in 2019, Zuppi has repeatedly been called "the Italian Francis" for his dedication to helping the needy, his openness to migrants, and his more modest lifestyle compared to other archbishops. Many point out that if Francis could have chosen a successor, it would have been Cardinal Zuppi.
In fact, Francis entrusted him with the task of coordinating the Vatican's humanitarian aid efforts in Ukraine, especially in assisting and rescuing children involved in the war.
But in addition to the reluctance of the more conservative wing of the cardinal group, Zuppi has also been criticized for the lack of results in investigations into sexual abuse committed within the Italian Church, which could deprive him of key support in this complex electoral process.
7. Robert Sarah. 79 years old, originally from Ourous, Republic of Guinea
He is a former high-ranking Vatican official, of traditional and orthodox views, whose literary works have earned him a wide following around the world.
Sarah argues that the causes of Western decline are multiple: modern ideologies, neocolonialism, moral relativism, unlimited globalization, new ideologies, and political exhaustion, among others. According to him, these phenomena act as "diseases of this age" that disintegrate the fundamental values upon which Western civilization was built.
Sarah points out that this crisis of values is due to the disappearance of Christian ethics and the transformation of human beings into mere producers and consumers, reducing them to just another cog in the global economic machine.
Cardinal Sarah spoke in an almost apocalyptic tone at the 2015 Synod on the Family about what he considered the "contemporary evils" of abortion, the homosexual agenda, and Islamism. He published the book From the Depths of Our Hearts (2019), written jointly with Benedict XVI on the crisis of the priesthood and in defense of priestly celibacy.